If you dropped a rubber duck in the ocean near Antarctica, where would it go?
This is a deep-time cousin of an activity you may already know — tracking a floating object as ocean currents carry it along. Here, we ask a bigger question: would the duck’s journey have been different tens of millions of years ago, before Australia and Antarctica drifted apart?
A note on honesty: the duck’s path is not a real physics-based ocean model — real ocean circulation depends on wind, temperature, saltiness and the shape of every coastline, which is a much bigger calculation than this. What it does honestly is never cross dry land: the route is the real shortest sea-only path between two points, using the real reconstructed land shape at each age — so if the path bends, it’s because real land was actually in the way.
Australia was still joined to Antarctica along most of what’s now the Tasmanian Gateway. A closed gateway leaves no sea-level route for water — or a duck — to slip straight through, so anything trying to sail east has to go the long way round instead.
At 60 and 50 Ma the duck barely gets a shorter route at all — the gateway is still effectively closed. By 15 Ma the detour has shrunk a lot, and today the duck can take a nearly straight line past Australia. Real scientists think the opening of gateways like this one — letting water flow all the way around Antarctica — helped the Southern Ocean grow much colder over millions of years, which may have helped kick-start Antarctica’s ice sheets.